Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 2.375436 2.770744 3.209013 3.730620 4.334220 5.010481 5.825431
2026-01-04 1.765360 2.295208 2.946019 3.802764 4.899618 6.255549 8.058069
2026-01-11 1.384658 1.968472 2.748429 3.863298 5.412657 7.486256 10.469096
2026-01-18 1.116407 1.712132 2.566637 3.875852 5.824935 8.612327 12.894018
2026-01-25 0.916586 1.502232 2.396104 3.850978 6.150157 9.632072 15.291831
2026-02-01 0.725470 1.263163 2.131479 3.624316 6.114125 10.084125 16.873179
2026-02-08 0.598397 1.100982 1.955331 3.498972 6.202071 10.717057 18.798587
2026-02-15 0.513941 0.994841 1.851778 3.472224 6.439020 11.608662 21.254012
2026-02-22 0.467651 0.948483 1.843153 3.606955 6.970180 13.060815 24.861222
2026-03-01 0.408092 0.865783 1.753574 3.575302 7.186924 13.972734 27.601626
2026-03-08 0.354837 0.785941 1.656080 3.511081 7.327497 14.753194 30.184533
2026-03-15 0.316252 0.729670 1.596088 3.510972 7.590540 15.793431 33.394161
2026-03-22 0.304985 0.732591 1.662555 3.792033 8.486802 18.235249 39.816702
2026-03-29 0.276794 0.692833 1.632505 3.863361 8.955893 19.881117 44.846469
2026-04-05 0.251274 0.654692 1.599961 3.924147 9.411611 21.561230 50.186220
2026-04-12 0.225900 0.612123 1.550149 3.936657 9.759017 23.050713 55.308021
2026-04-19 0.201674 0.567840 1.488839 3.911324 10.012874 24.361840 60.199296
2026-04-26 0.170244 0.498441 1.353859 3.681184 9.735469 24.407443 62.129705
2026-05-03 0.148149 0.450264 1.264927 3.553919 9.694266 25.005283 65.467772
2026-05-10 0.133204 0.419501 1.216858 3.526761 9.906159 26.247992 70.570372
2026-05-17 0.126259 0.411001 1.228176 3.663544 10.573055 28.719370 79.129199
2026-05-24 0.113943 0.383715 1.182086 3.631409 10.774288 30.016106 84.789336
2026-05-31 0.101981 0.355176 1.127613 3.566209 10.873292 31.055825 89.901600